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Immigrants to New Hampshire: Enemies at the Gate?

February 2, 2017

America is pretty great most of the time but I understand why many in this country disagree with that perspective.  There are a lot of disaffected individuals across the country, in large part because of the differential impacts that changing economic, social and cultural forces have had on individuals, communities, and regions of the country.  There is also no shortage of individuals, causes and movements looking to channel that disaffection.  Populism and nationalism are catalysts that can coalesce the disaffected in this and other countries into powerful and sometimes malignant forces. It is easy to see how the real disaffection accompanying economic and social change in this country, combined with legitimate desires for national security could be stoked to the point where issues requiring thoughtful policies and actions morph into something less legitimate and more pernicious.  As my favorite self-educated, longshoreman, philosopher Eric Hoffer, wrote in “The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements”  back in 1951- “Mass movements can rise and spread without belief in a God, but never without belief in a devil.”  Today in America the devil is foreigners and  in particular – but not exclusively – foreign Muslims (along with other foreigners and immigrants the media is a distant but strong second devil), but you don’t have to look too deeply to see those sentiments extending to other faiths, races, and nationalities and others (e.g. “experts”, scientists, intellectuals, “elites”.)”  That is a big step backward for a great country (that can, in fact, be made GREATER) but one who’s greatness has not been predicated on diminishing other peoples or retreating from the rest of the world.

Years ago in this blog I wrote that NH’s most valuable import was the talented individuals that arrived here from other countries. I still believe that to be true and now seems like an appropriate time to revisit that issue with some fresh data and analysis.

Unquestionably New Hampshire and New England will be economically and demographically worse off if international migration is significantly restricted.  In fact, it is hard to see a region of the country that would be more negatively affected than New England by any large scale reduction in immigration.  International migration has provided a powerful boost to the economy of New England by adding individuals to our labor force and talent to fuel our region’s innovation-dependent economy.  Always important to the region but never more so than now,  a time when New England has been on the losing end of national demographic trends that have seen more individuals in this country moving to the south and to the west.  Looking at just the past several years we see that all of the New England states experienced more people moving out to other states than moved in.  New Hampshire is again starting to see net in-migration from other states but for more than a decade the state has experienced, on average, net international migration of about 2,000 individuals annually.

net-migration

There are about 76,000 foreign born individuals living in New Hampshire.  Immigrants comprise over 6 percent of the state’s labor force (compared to 16.5 percent in the U.S. overall) but that 6 percent has an out sized importance to the state’s labor force in a number of ways.  On balance, immigrants increase the overall level of educational attainment of New Hampshire’s adult population.   Examining data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s “American Community Survey” 5 year estimates (2011-15), the chart below shows that 40 percent of the foreign born population age 25 and above in NH has a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to 34 percent for U.S. born residents of the state.  A higher percentage of foreign born residents living in NH have not graduated from high school but overall the chart shows that  compared to the foreign born population across the U.S., immigrants in NH have significantly higher levels of educational attainment.

ed-attainment-of-immigrants

Immigrants represent a high percentage of individuals in New Hampshire with STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math) degrees.  There is no single definition of what constitutes a STEM degree but examining Census data on the first college degree (bachelor’s) received by working individuals in NH, age 25 and above, it is not difficult to reasonably classify the 172 different degrees as STEM or not.

Among NH’s foreign born adult population that holds at least a bachelor’s degree, 46 percent hold a degree in a stem field, compared to just 24 percent for native born NH residents.

immigrant-pct-with-stem-degree

Despite comprising just over 6 percent of NH’s workforce, foreign born individuals account for 16.5 percent of all working NH residents with a STEM degree, a percentage nearly equal to that of NH born residents of the state.

immigrant-pct-of-stem

Finally, examining specific occupations shows just how important immigrants are to the supply of many occupations in the state..  Foreign born residents comprise 20 percent of the computer-related occupations held by NH residents.  Fully 20 percent of physicians, surgeons, and other high-level medical occupations are held by foreign born residents of New Hampshire. Foreign born residents also hold a relatively large percentage (11.5%) of production jobs in the state.  Among lower-skill occupations foreign born residents hold 21 percent of maid and housekeeping positions and 13 percent of janitorial occupations. The figure below highlights the impact of immigrants on the supply of occupations in NH for several of the more than 400 occupations examined.  Only occupations held by 1,000 or more NH residents are included.

immigrant-share-of-occupationsSupporters of migration bans and limits say that the limits on immigration would only apply to refugees (not comforting to me for a number of non-economic reasons), undocumented immigrants, or those with a criminal past.  But with the rhetoric and actions coming from Washington it is hard to see anti-immigration policies stopping there.

Categories: Educational Attainment, immigration, migration, Workforce
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More on Shifting Economic Activity in NH

April 17, 2014

My post on the “Shifting Locus of Economic Activity in NH” back in January generated a lot of interest and emails. That post has more views than any other post on this blog over the past year and half. Admittedly that’s setting a pretty low bar as far as blog readership honors go. Nevertheless I want to thank my family as well as those with an interest in flying, swarming insects and an inability to spell “locust” in their search engines for making it possible.

 

As I noted in my first post on the topic, I believe there are a number of economic and demographic indicators that support my contention about the shift in economic activity. Still, there are some (many?) in the Granite State who disagree. In the spirit of giving the public what it wants and sparking debate, I present another of what will be several posts on the topic.
Some themes essential to my thesis are: that the ability to attract and retain talent (skilled individuals with higher levels of educational attainment) is the critical ingredient responsible for the shifting of activity in NH – as well as the key ingredient for producing a dynamic economy anywhere; and that communities offering amenities and services desirable to “talent” and at a relatively more affordable price are keys to attracting talent. I think price (the ability to offer desirable amenities and services at a relatively more affordable price lower than other communities that offer similar amenities) has been important. But I also think that patterns of economic activity in NH and throughout the country demonstrate that unless your community or state is sitting on a valuable store of fossil fuels or minerals, being cheaper isn’t enough to generate more robust economic activity. One interesting artifact of the debate over local government fiscal policies is the mistaken belief that communities spend more when they contain a higher percentage of lower-income residents. In fact, just the opposite is true – expectations for services, quality, and amenities, along with their costs, generally rise as communities (primarily cities – small and large) generate more economic activity and become wealthier. This typically creates a lot of conflict in communities that are experiencing new economic successes and associated demographic changes and can make sustaining a higher level of economic activity difficult for a community.
Getting back to the evidence that supports my contention about economic activity in NH, the previous decade has not been kind to NH or most states in terms of job growth. I documented the Seacoast’s increasing share of NH’s employment and in key industries in my prior post on the topic.  Here, and in future posts, I will look at some of the demographics of that job growth to support my thesis. The chart below shows the percentage change in jobs among individuals of all educational levels (age 25 and up) in different counties and the State of NH between 2003 and 2012, as well as the percentage of jobs held by individuals with at least a BA degree.

County Job Growth
Similar to my prior post, the chart shows that job growth has been higher in the Seacoast (defined here as Strafford and Rockingham Counties because of data availability while the prior post used data at the community level) than in either Hillsborough County or the State as a whole. More importantly, the chart shows that the rate of job growth in the Seacoast among those with at least a BA degree has exceeded the rates for either Hillsborough County or the State by an even wider margin. Strafford County has seen an especially large increase (largely in Dover – my domicile in the interests of full disclosure) but its much smaller employment base makes larger percentage changes easier to obtain. Again, however, it is not just job growth but the nature of that growth and the shifting of talent that is the key.
The Seacoast accounted for a higher percentage of the state’s net job growth between 2003 and 2012 (chart below). The percentage of the state’s net job growth accounted for by the Seacoast was 70% compared to 46% for Hillsborough County (note the percentages add to more than 100% because some counties had negative job growth during the time period).

Share of States Job Growth
Almost half of the net job growth in NH among workers with a BA degree occurred in the Seacoast. Hillsborough County still has a larger percentage of job holders in the state with a BA degree or higher (37% to 31% in the Seacoast) but that percentage has slipped by almost 1% over the time period, while the Seacoast’s percentage has increased by 1%. Still even shifts occurring at seemingly glacial speed are very powerful. I suppose it is possible that the Seacoast has just been more successful in adding jobs which overqualified BA’s are filling. Based on my initial examination of job growth by industry, I don’t think that accounts for the relative differences, but in future posts I will examine that and other possibilities.

Categories: Demographics, Educational Attainment, job growth, New Hampshire, NH, NH Economy
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The Locus of Economic Activity in NH is Shifting

January 21, 2014

I gave a presentation last month during which I argued that the locus of economic activity in New Hampshire is shifting to the Seacoast.  That is a provocative statement destined to offend the population centers of Manchester and Nashua and quite likely the individuals elected to represent them. Provocation isn’t my intent, it rarely is, but is often the result nevertheless.  This shift will take years to become more apparent but the evidence for its occurrence appears across a range of important economic and demographic metrics.  Over the past decade, private sector job growth in the combined Portsmouth and Dover/Rochester NECTAs** has outpaced growth in either the Manchester of Nashua NECTAs.  The Seacoast is home to only about 15% of private sector employment, but that percentage is growing.  The shift is not really about the job growth numbers because the Seacoast will always have smaller employment numbers than will the population centers of Manchester and Nashua.  It is about how so much more of the innovation and transformation that is occurring among businesses and industries in the state’s economy is occurring in the Seacoast region.

NH Regional job growth

Alone, the increase in private employment in the Seacoast relative to the Manchester and Nashua regions would not be that significant.  Rather, it is the increasing share of innovation and growth in key industries that the Seacoast is capturing that indicates the locus of key economic activity is shifting.  As the chart below shows, the Seacoast region has marginally increased its share of New Hampshire’s private sector employment since 2004, but it has, in relatively short time, substantially increased its share of finance and insurance industry employment, information industry employment, as well as both health care and manufacturing employment.  Annual town-level data stops in 2012 but with the coming addition of technology dependent, international companies like Safran, the manufacturing trend appears to be continuing.   The one key industry where the Seacoast has not gained share is in professional and business services.   This is a large, important, and growing sector of the New Hampshire economy.  In most states, key professional and business services firms often locate in the state’s largest city.  Major NH Law firms, engineering firms, advertising agencies, and many of the other industries that comprise this sector still seem to prefer to be centrally located and have their main offices in the state’s largest city, Manchester.  Having a main office anywhere other than  the largest city seems to signal, to some, that a business is “regional,” that it does not serve the entire state or the larger New England region. The Seacoast is also capturing a smaller share of retail employment, which is surprising given its location along two state borders.  It is not that retail is declining in the region but rather that it has grown faster elsewhere in the state.

Seacoast share of industries

Manchester and Nashua are still home to more companies in key industries than is the Seacoast and that will be true for some time, maybe always.  Still, there was a time when the Greater Nashua and Manchester areas were the technology and manufacturing center of New Hampshire and almost all important developments in manufacturing and technology industries occurred there.  These regions remain the technology leaders by numbers, but more key developments and new companies in technology and manufacturing are  occurring in the Seacoast.  The development of the Pease Tradeport into a premier location for industries of all types, along with the presence of a major research university (UNH), have played important roles in the shift.  But what is really sustaining the trend is the ability of the region to attract the talent (skilled individuals with higher levels of educational attainment) that companies in emerging, growing and higher value-added industries desperately need.   As I say far too often, brains are the most valuable resource in the 21st century.  Skilled, well-educated people have the most economic opportunities and they are the most mobile members of society.  Where they choose to locate, robust economic growth is likely to follow.  Examining Census data indicates that skilled individuals with higher levels of educational attainment have increasingly chosen to live in the Seacoast, and that has provided a key source of competitive advantage to the region.  The chart below shows how the population of individuals with a bachelor’s degree or higher has changed in some NH cities over the past two decades.  The chart shows that on a percentage basis, Portsmouth and Dover, by far, had the greatest increase of individuals over the age of 25 with a bachelor’s degree among their populations.  Somersworth, although beginning with a lower concentration of individuals with a bachelor’s degree, had the next largest percentage increase in subsequent decades.  Among the largest cities in the Seacoast, only Rochester has not seen a substantial increase in its population with a bachelor’s degree or higher.

Changes in Ed Attainment

If the Seacoast continues to increase its concentration of “talent,” then the locus of economic activity in the state will continue to shift toward the region.  Communities in the region continue to attract skilled individuals with higher levels of educational attainment because, to varying degrees, most have been able to provide a mix of services and social, cultural, and civic amenities, at a price more affordable than communities in other states.  But if being the “cheapest” place to live were the key, the Seacoast would not be thriving.  Rather, it is the combination of services and amenities at  relatively more affordable price (providing a good value) that has been attractive.  Many communities and regions are looking to thrive.   Like all regions in New Hampshire the Seacoast has heard, and for the most part heeded, the call for fiscal restraint (although you can never spend too little for some or too much for others), but most of its communities have looked for ways to continue to provide or increase the quality of their services and the amenities (natural, built, civic, social and cultural) they offer.  It is more difficult for urban areas to attract and retain the skilled individuals with higher levels of educational attainment that are increasingly the key to a vibrant economy because urban cities have to find ways to provide and encourage a level of services and amenities to compensate individuals for living in cities that have the problems associated with urban environments.

Most of the focus of economic development strategies is on creating policies to ensure a “good business climate.”  I think that is important and I also think NH has a pretty good business climate.  With so much concern over population and labor force growth and demographic changes in NH, more emphasis needs to be placed on creating a good “talent climate” as well as a good business climate. I don’t know that the Seacoast of NH has sought to do that but the demographic and economic data suggest they have done so regardless.   The result has been a competitive economic advantage. On a smaller and slightly different scale you can say the same thing about the Hanover/Lebanon area which serves as a nice control group to assure the importance of amenities don’t just mean having an ocean nearby.

 

** NECTA = New England City and Town Area, a grouping of towns into a connected labor market area, akin to a metropolitan or micropolitan statistical area.

Categories: economic development, Educational Attainment, job growth, NH, NH Economy
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Competition Raises Rather Than Lowers College Costs

October 9, 2013

I’ve written about student loan debt and college costs in the past.  A report I recently completed on the issue was released earlier this week, you can read it here .  It is long and detailed so even if your aren’t that interested in the topic it is an effective substitute for a strong drink or a mild sedative as a sleep aid.

The report didn’t get a lot of media coverage and in any case it is difficult for media coverage to capture more than a few highlights of a long study that deals with complicated issues (although Kevin Landrigan at the Nashua Telegraph did his usual good job, as did Kathleen Ronayne at the Concord Monitor).  One small portion of the study that I think is interesting and important examines the issue of competition in higher education as a contributor to higher tuition levels.  Colleges in New England and the Northeast have higher tuition prices on average than colleges with similar characteristics (public, private, selectivity, state support, etc.) located elsewhere in the country.  No doubt the region has some of the finest higher education in the country but not every institution in the region is world-class with an ability to charge a premium for educating students.  I thought state-level differences in cost-of-living would account for some of New England’s and the Northeast’s higher tuition prices but multivariate (regression) models using data from about 700 four-year colleges and universities across the country failed to demonstrate that cost-of-living differences were significantly related to differences in tuition prices among universities with similar characteristics but in different regions of the country.

Tuition FactorsOne characteristic of higher education in New England and the Northeast that distinguishes them from other regions of the country is how many colleges and universities are located here.   It is possible that increased competition for students and for faculty could increase college costs in New England and elsewhere.   To date, few colleges and universities have been willing to compete on price.    Colleges generally compete by offering more and better faculty, facilities, student services, and amenities. Colleges want to be the best they can be and they compete for students, for faculty, and with businesses for talent (PhD’s in fields in demand). This is especially true in a region like New England where there is a high concentration of higher education institutions and where there is a large base of technology, business, and professional employment that is more likely to employ individuals with advanced degrees and to compete with colleges for available “talent”.

To test the degree to which competition among colleges might influence regional college costs and prices, I had to develop a meaningful measure of competition among colleges. The study operationally defined the level of competition among colleges in each region as the percentage of regional employment that is employed in higher education.  Specifically, I calculated a “location quotient” for higher education employment in each state and averaged the location quotients for each state in a region to arrive at regional location quotients for nine census divisions (regions).  This measure roughly approximates the degree of choice students in each region have regarding college enrollment.  The figure below highlights regional differences in the concentration of higher education employment.  I won’t get into a discussion of location quotients (LQ) but a LQ of greater than 1 for a service industry indicates it is serving more than local markets and is also “exporting” its services.  We know colleges in New England attract student  nationally and internationally.  The darker regions of the country are where there is a greater concentration of higher education employment (and thus the potential for competition among them).

Higher Ed Emp Concentrations

Testing the impact of the LQ measure of regional competition on tuition and fee levels shows the variable to be significantly related to tuition levels at both public and private colleges, with regional location quotients showing a larger impact on tuition and fees at private colleges than at public colleges (implying that competition for students at private colleges has a greater impact on prices than it does at public colleges) .  The elasticity of tuition and fees with respect to our measure of competition was small (.10) at private colleges, and even smaller (.076) at public colleges. However, as the chart below shows, the magnitude of the difference between higher education employment in New England and other regions is great (indicating much higher levels of competition among colleges in the New England region), so this small elasticity still implies that competition has a relatively large impact on tuition and fees at colleges in New England.

Higher Ed Location QuotientsAs an example, New England’s location quotient of 2.35 is about 140 percent larger than is the location quotient (or concentration of higher education employment) in the South Atlantic region. The elasticity of tuition and fees at private colleges with respect to this measure of competition suggests that for every 10 percent increase in higher education competition in a region, tuition and fees will be one percent (1%) higher. Thus the 140 percent difference in higher education competition in New England compared to the South Atlantic region implies that all else equal, we can expect tuition and fees at private colleges in New England to be 14 percent higher than in the South Atlantic region.  For public colleges, with a smaller elasticity of tuition and fees with respect to competition, these results imply that tuition and fees would be about 10 percent higher in New England as a result of higher levels of competition among colleges in the region.

I think these findings have important implications for tuition prices, student debt, and higher education in New Hampshire and New England and their economies.  The biggest reason student debt levels are so high in New Hampshire is the fact that the primary strategy used by families for reducing the cost of college and for limiting student debt is attending a lower cost, in-state, public institution.  Over the past decade more New Hampshire families have attempted that and with little success because of the high cost of attendance at New Hampshire’s public colleges and the low levels of grant aid awarded by them.  State aid plays an important role in tuition prices at public colleges (just as endowments do at private colleges) and has a big impact on NH’s prices but even accounting for differences in state aid, competition for students and faculty appears to be contributing to higher tuition prices among  public (and private) colleges in the region.

Like all of us colleges want to be the best they can be and they compete with other colleges on national and regional rankings to prove it.  A sad byproduct of that is that most rankings count per student spending heavily in their assessments so that any college that can offer as good or better educational services while restraining expenses will suffer in national rankings.  It is important for public institutions to remain a key strategy for families in limiting the cost of college and student debt.  It is probably more important now than national rankings and competing for a shrinking population of college age students.

Competition is a wonderful thing and it is addicting (I know –  it is my drug of choice).  I am a believer in markets and I believe that the market for higher education is changing and will result in more price competition among private and hopefully public institutions. The competition won’t be on price exactly,  it will be based on “value” not just price (it won’t do anyone any good to say I got the “cheapest” education unless the result of that education is greater opportunity for success in the labor market and in life).  Competition among public colleges and public colleges with private colleges could accelerate market-based changes  in higher education by focusing on value, not on facilities, amenities, high-profile faculty or programs, or whatever basis colleges typically compete on.  Given the fiscal realities of states, colleges will not be able to compete with private institutions by spending more to be the best.  When you can’t effectively compete on one field you are wise to move the competition to one more favorable to your chances of success.  Public colleges can do that and parents and families in New Hampshire and New England looking to limit college costs and debt would be winners if they did.

Categories: college, Education, Educational Attainment, higher education
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Is Your State Overrated?

May 24, 2013

My penance (and your burden) for being an absent blogger over the past week or so is a longer post with extra graphics today.

A lot of people, including me, are accustomed to assessing the overall skill level of a state’s or a region’s workforce (and thus its potential to capture growing industries that rely on more highly educated workers) based largely on the percentage of the workforce with a college degree.  It is simple, intuitive,  and more than a  little lazy.  It is also becoming a  less useful indicator of the supply of labor that is in demand by businesses.   Populations with higher levels of educational attainment confer a lot of benefits on a state or region but today, having a high percentage of a state’s or region’s population with at least a BA degree probably says as much about the state’s political and cultural sensibilities (as well is its “demand” for services rather than its “need” for services but that is another post)  than it does about its economic performance and potential.

The sense of self-satisfaction we in New England and in New Hampshire enjoy about  having a population with among the highest levels of educational attainment in the country is palpable, but the reality is that more states are increasing their levels of educational attainment and New England and the Northeast stand-out far less than in the past.  Moreover, in an economy that is increasingly rewarding particular skills and degrees more  than  just high educational attainment, it is not as clear that much of the region still has an edge  on the one resource that  it has that is always in demand – talent.

Much of New England and the Northeast has a high percentage of its adult population with a four-year college degree or higher (see chart below).

% With BA or Higher

Just looking at levels of educational attainment tells only part of the story.  I can’t blog for too long without talking about the “skills-gap”  so here goes.  Much of the demand for college-trained labor is in fields that require scientific, technical, engineering,  or mathematical (STEM) skills and degrees.  The percentage of a state’s population with a BA or higher degree tells a lot about the availability of STEM skills but for a number of states it tells a lot less.  I calculated the percentage of a state’s population with a STEM degree (based on first college degree earned) and included it above as the dark blue portion of the bar graph.  The official listing of STEM fields is maintained, surprisingly, by the Dept. of Homeland Security ( I categorized 171 college degrees into STEM and non-STEM degrees and I think my listing is close but not a perfect match).  If you compare  the percentage of the population with a four-year or higher STEM degree (chart below) with the percentage of the population with a BA degree or higher (chart above) it shows a large change in the relative rankings of a number of states, and a some in New England in particular.

% with STEM degrees

The final chart makes just that comparison, it shows the change in ranking  between a state’s position on the percentage of its adult working population with at least a BA degree and the percentage of its population with a STEM degree.  The chart highlights states that may be over and underrated on the skill level (at least skills in demand) of their workforce.   Vermont stands out as having the biggest drop in rankings between the percentage of its population with at least a BA degree and its ranking on the percentage of the population with a STEM degree.  Maine also fares poorly.  But New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Connecticut also drop in rankings when measuring “talent in-demand” among the workforce.  Only Massachusetts does not  drop in ranking  ( it is ranked number one on both measures so there is no way it could show anything but a drop in relative rankings).   On the other hand, states that are often derided by Northeastern “elites”, such as Texas, Arizona, Florida and Alabama  have a smaller percentage of college-trained labor but more of them (on a percentage basis) are trained in the STEM fields most in demand.  Still, they  don’t have as high a percentage of their adult populations with a STEM degree as do some New England and some other states, but with population and migration trends, and as more individuals with those skills and more companies that want access to them agglomerate in those states, how long before some take the lead in “talent”?   I don’t think Massachusetts has as much to worry about as do other states in  New England because of their unique higher-education assets.  The question for the rest of us is, can we continue to “beggar our neighbor” and benefit from the Bay State’s ability to churn-out and attract individuals with the degrees and skills in demand?

over and under rated states

As New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut show, having a lot of “talent” in your workforce doesn’t guarantee strong economic growth.  The business, political, environmental, and even cultural and social climates also play an important role in promoting prosperity.  I look at states with a relatively higher  percentage of their college trained workforces  in STEM fields as “up-and-comers.”   Most don’t have the history of high educational attainment in their populations that New England does, so their overall ranking on educational attainment tends to be lower.  Some, like Texas and Arizona also have had a large influx of individuals with traditionally lower levels of educational attainment.  Nevertheless, they are accumulating and growing a larger portion of the nation’s “talent” in STEM fields and over the long-haul, that is the biggest threat to New England’s most valuable and most in-demand resource, and thus the biggest threat to its prosperity.

Categories: college, Educational Attainment, higher education, Skills Gap, Workforce
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There’s No Place Like Home (Your Home State)

April 29, 2013

I was surprised by data on the enrollment migration of high school graduates who enter  four-year colleges immediately or shortly after graduation from high school.   As the chart below shows, in most states, a very high percentage of students enrolling in four-year colleges enroll in a school in their home state.

Student Migration

This would not be  unexpected if it were data from 1920 but a lot has changed in the world that should exert a fairly strong influence on the enrollment decisions of high school graduates.  First, anything that reduces the time, cost, or difficulty in travel should contribute to an increase in the willingness of students to travel further to attend college.  The real cost of travel (measured as dollar per airline mile) has fallen dramatically over the past several decades.  In addition, the increased ability to communicate over longer distances and at ever lower prices should also reduce disincentives to enrollment over distances.  Perhaps even more importantly, the information available to students and their parents about schools (including video tours, rankings, and all types of detailed data), should also reduce the barrier of distance from home  to enrollment in a college.   In addition, colleges have more information about students and an increasing ability to target potential students irrespective of their distance from campus.  States with a low percentage of students enrolling in a college in their homes state (NH, VT, CT, MD, DE) all have many college choices in nearby states so many of the barriers that might influence enrollment distance don’t really apply.

We in NH fret a lot about the percentage of students who choose to enroll in an out-of-state college, but almost 90 percent of NH grads enrolling in a four-year institution enroll in a college in New England and on balance we are a slight “net-importer” of college enrollees.   There are tremendous economic and public policy implications related to the supply of young college graduates but we need to be careful that in analyzing the issues we use appropriate metrics.  I am not convinced that in NH’s case, the percentage of students enrolling in-state is a good one.

I need to look at a time series of this data to get a better handle on some of the contributing factors to these data.  For now the only conclusion I can draw is that college-age children simply care too much about their families to want to venture far from home – at least that is want I have wanted to believe for the past several years.

Categories: college, Educational Attainment, migration
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Give Me Your Huddled, Talented Masses

April 19, 2013

This is a week that reminds us of how many people from around the world  want to harm the U.S.  and just how easy it can be.  This is a day when a daughter who was supposed to be coming home for the weekend  is unable to leave her apartment, catch the “T”  or even get a cab to North or South Station where no trains or buses are leaving the city of Boston anyway.  For me at least, its not an easy time to be rationale and analytical.  That is precisely why this is an especially good afternoon to highlight, in one small way, how much the presence in the U.S. of individuals from the rest of the world contributes to our economy, communities, and society.

A lot of attention is focused on the relative inability of the U.S. to produce enough individuals with the education and training needed to fill critical  openings in scientific, technology engineering and mathematics (STEM) fields.  Why that is is the subject for another (or many other) posts.  There aren’t enough individuals in this country with STEM degrees to meet existing demand according to businesses that employ them.  Looking at unemployment rates for individuals with science, tech, engineering and math degrees seems to validate that belief.   But the U.S. would be even further from meeting the demand if it were not able to tap a global labor market.

I’ve been looking at trends that affect recent college graduates so I will focus on the importance of foreign-born individuals to the supply of skilled workers among recent college graduates and younger workers in the U.S..  I sorted data on individuals in the U.S. workforce,  age 24-29, with a Bachelor’s degree or higher, according to the college major of their first college degree, and then by the percentage of individuals in each major that were foreign-born.  The results are striking.  Overall, about 13.6 percent of all workers age 24-29, with at least a Bachelor’s, are foreign-born.  However, the percentage in STEM majors is dramatically higher, comprising  30, 40, to as much as 50 percent of young people and recent graduates in some major fields of study.  By far, the majors with the highest percentage of individuals that are foreign-born are STEM majors.

Foreign Born STEM Grads

The data make clear how important the rest of the world is, and will continue to be, in meeting our economy’s demand for skilled workers.  On an afternoon, in a day, during a week, like this one, data doesn’t have much influence on our thoughts or maybe just not on mine, and that is all the more reason to look closely at it.

Categories: Educational Attainment, Labor, Skills Gap
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Educational Attainment, Economic Prosperity and Fiscal Reality

March 4, 2013

I write and speak a lot about the importance of demographics to community and regional prosperity.  Over the past several years I have written and spoken about my belief that communities wanting to increase the number and quality of employment opportunities available in their town increasingly need to recognize the importance of being an attractive place for skilled individuals with higher levels of educational attainment.  Employers in emerging and growing industries  locate in areas where the pool of talent (skilled, well-educated individuals) is “deep” or growing.   A community can still see employment growth even if it doesn’t have a lot of skilled, well-educated individuals if it is located in a region that does have enough of them but the impact on and benefits to the community will be very different.

It is hard to empirically test the importance of skill levels and educational attainment to job growth in individual communities but anyone involved with the location and expansion decisions of employers knows how important the availability of a skilled and educated labor force is.  Because the occupational needs of employers in different industries varies greatly, I, and others, often use the percentage of the population age 25+ with at least a bachelor’s degree as a surrogate for trends in the education and skill-level of the workforce in a community or region. It’s a good way to labelled an elitist, at least by those who don’t know anything about you.  I don’t think only college graduates can get good jobs but it is clear to me that trends in the educational attainment of the population of cities and towns is a pretty good indicator of how the economic fortunes of a community are changing. I’ve tested the relationship statistically and found that there is a  relationship between the change in the percentage of individuals age 25+ with at least a BA degree in a community and employment growth over the past decade.  There are a lot of factors that influence employment growth but over past decade communities that have had larger increases in the percentage of individuals with high levels of educational attainment generally have had better job growth (or at least less negative growth).  The relationship narrowly missed statistical significance when tested on NH’s 40 most populated communities.  Since the recession in the early 2000’s, there has been virtually no private sector job growth in NH (primarily because the last “‘great recession” wiped-out gains from the middle of the decade).  The chart below crudely divides NH’s larger communities into quartiles according to the change between 2000 and 2010 in the percentage of their population age 25+ that has at least a BA degree and the mean change in private sector employment between 2003 and 2011.  One caveat, the figures for 2010 used to calculate this is based on the three-year average of American Community Survey values and smaller communities have larger margins of error in the survey results.  It is just one of the challenges in documenting the relationship between demographics and economic performance at the community level.  Nevertheless, I think  the data point to a relationship were towns that are seeing increasing levels of educational attainment among their population are performing better economically than than those that are seeing less of an increase.

job growth and ed attainment change

It also says a lot about how the character of a community might be changing.  I live in city that has seen a significant increase in the percentage of its population with a BA degree or higher over the past two decades.  That change has contributed to changing expectations of the community (the type of services and amenities it offers).  That type of change creates a clash between the old and new that has and continues to characterize many communities.  In many ways I believe local tax cap debates are more about demographic and socioeconomic changes than they are about economics and fiscal policies.  But I digress.

Skilled individuals with higher levels of educational attainment have the most economic opportunities and they are the most mobile.  I think keeping and attracting skilled individuals with higher levels of educational attainment is an increasingly important economic development strategy for communities.  Looking at changes in educational attainment between 2000 and 2010 among NH’s largest communities shows some interesting patterns.  Not surprisingly, some of the communities that have done the most to restrain expenditures have seen the smallest increases in educational attainment levels (some towns like Durham had such high levels – 77%  – they have no way to increase much).

ed attainment change by town

Spending liberally is never a good thing but providing the services and amenities desired by skilled and educated individuals and families at a price (in terms of local taxes) lower than other communities is a good way to accumulate the talented workforce that can increase real prosperity in a community.  Just adding skilled and educated individuals isn’t enough for employment growth, particularly if a community doesn’t want to be a center of employment or is otherwise inhospitable to employment growth.   I don’t think a low tax price alone is enough to attract talent and I don’t think providing amenities and services without regard to price is enough either, but too often never the twain shall meet in striking a balance between prices and  services and amenities and longer-term community development objectives.  I don’t know many local budgets that can’t be cut but unfortunately the cuts usually come at the expense of those services and amenities most likely to help a community attract or retain individuals with the most economic opportunities and choices of where to locate.  When I say or write these things I risk being labeled a big spender or liberal.  In reality I am just documenting trends that seem pretty clear to me.  Nevertheless, my advice to others is never bring data to an ideological fight if you want to escape unscathed.  In an age of austerity, spending decisions need to consider both the current  fiscal reality as well as the longer-term implications for the economic prospects  of  a community.

Categories: Demographics, economic development, Educational Attainment, Fiscal Policy, job growth, NH
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Where Never is Heard a Discouraging Word

February 27, 2013

Without an accurate assessment of where you are you can’t chart a course to get to where you want to be.   In the context of efforts to strengthen regional and state economies, however,  plotting your coordinates seems especially difficult.   For decades New Hampshire (including me) has become accustomed to hearing that its economy is “doing better than most other states”  and that we can expect to grow faster than a majority of states and all other states in the Northeast.  I have blogged here several times about how that is not currently the case but because about five people read this blog there isn’t much fallout.  But  when someone like me suggests, in a public forum,  that NH is lagging and that superior growth is not currently the case for the state, you can expect some incredulity and push back.

State 12 Month Job Growth

When you speak in a community and present lots of data that suggests it is lagging even more, then you can expect the push back to more likely come with a closed fist.  And when that community is close to where you live, well  it’s probably best to get an unlisted phone number.  I’m no prophet but if I were I  think it would  probably be impossible to be one in your own land.  I like to be the bearer of good news but when the data doesn’t suggest good news is warranted I don’t change the data or the news about it that I bring.  Long ago I learned that being right too early will feel a lot like being wrong.  I don’t know who was more offended by my presentation yesterday at a local chamber of commerce, people who feel I know nothing about their community, the people who think I know nothing about New Hampshire, the people who think I don’t understand the U.S. economy, or the people who think I know nothing about any of these.   An informal tally to-date suggests about an even split.

I am not a twitter user or follower, I am only marginally able to follow my own thoughts and activities throughout the day, but if I were and if I were able to expand the size of a tweet, this is how it would summarize my remarks at the chamber forum:

Economic growth is increasingly associated with concentrations of skilled, well-educated individuals and any state’s, region’s, or community’s longer-term prosperity is likely to be correlated with its ability to attract and retain these individuals.  The ability to keep and attract this demographic is as much a requisite for job growth as it is a result so any region’s development strategy should attend to its capacity to appeal to this  demographic and look to leverage the associated economic benefits .  Understanding the direction of these trends in your community or region, likely tells a lot about recent and future economic performance.

If you happen to discover oil or shale gas under your state or community that tweet applies a lot less.  In addition, small communities can see strong growth from just one or two businesses, but with some exceptions and over the longer-term,  I think the summary holds true.   I am a first generation college graduate and my beginning, and likely my ending, doesn’t warrant even a whiff of elitism of any sort.  But making an association between educational attainment and economic growth apparently implies a disparaging of those who are not college graduates, just as the notion that NH’s economy is growing more slowly than some of the states that we are accustomed to regularly outperforming apparently implies an indictment of “the NH way” compared to to other states.

One or two years of weaker economic growth is not a signal of apocalypse, but its not a bad idea to wonder if it is and to consider ways to avoid it.   For me, the apocalyptic story  for NH would be that, over the longer-term, we become a slow employment growth state that is also a higher cost-of-living state.

State Cost of Living

High costs and slow employment growth have characterized too many states in the Northeast as well as California and they have all suffered as a result.  But at least in California you still have nice weather.

Categories: economic development, Educational Attainment, job growth, NH
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The Coming Matriarchy in the U.S.

February 12, 2013

I received a great comment/question  about my post “Why Can’t a Man Graduate More Like a Women” asking about the potential impact of Title IX on the rise in the percentage of female college graduates relative to male college graduates.  I didn’t have a good answer or much empirical evidence then but as is my custom I responded as if I did.

Title IX is most often identified with efforts to equalize opportunities to participate in intercollegiate sports for women but its real purpose was to prevent discrimination in education based on sex.  Title IX is a portion of the Education Amendments of 1972 and is also known as the Equal Opportunity in Education Act, it said:

No person in the United States shall, on the basis of sex, be excluded from participation in, be denied the benefits of, or be subjected to discrimination under any education program or activity receiving federal financial assistance…

Rules for its implementation were finalized in 1975 and since it was implemented the number of young women attending college on a full or part-time basis has increased by 138% compared to 47% for young men.

Male Female Enrollment Growth

Since the percentage of young women and young men hasn’t changed much since 1975, the differential growth rate is attributable to increasing enrollment rates for women.   I can’t say  how much of this is attributable to Title IX, a lot of things began to change for young women in the 1970s and female enrollments jumped between 1970 and 1975 as well (see chart below).

Male_Female Pct of Enrollment

Women now comprise about 57 percent of all undergraduate students in this country.  The growth trend seems to have stabilized somewhat in recent years – recessions tend to limit employment opportunities for young men more than for young women and this can prompt greater college enrollment among young men.

Male_female Unemployment Rates

A lot of progress has been made by women in this country since 1975 but it is hard not to see the association between the growth in female college enrollment and implementation of Title IX.  I am sure some readers will note Title IX’s shortcomings and more may object on principle to anything that seeks to equalize opportunities among our citizens.  But ideology often causes temporary or permanent blindness.  I’ve noted my interest in gender issues as the father of daughters and I blog frequently about gender and economics (select  the “gender” category to see some) but the issue has profound implications for the future of this country;  economic, political, as well as social.  Women are increasingly contributing to the quality of  “human capital” in this country.  There are now more women working in New Hampshire than men.  It is a great development that would be even greater absent the disturbing trends among young men.

From a political perspective (isn’t everything political these days?) the feminization of the workforce as I have called it (not pejoratively) along with the relationship between educational attainment (college graduates) and voting for Democratic candidates should prompt leaders of the Republican Party in this country to consider their relatively lack of appeal to women, especially younger women because as I see it, and as my daughters no doubt hope, it won’t be long before women will rule this country.

Categories: college, Demographics, Educational Attainment, Gender
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