Archive for the ‘migration’ category

Immigrants to New Hampshire: Enemies at the Gate?

February 2, 2017

America is pretty great most of the time but I understand why many in this country disagree with that perspective.  There are a lot of disaffected individuals across the country, in large part because of the differential impacts that changing economic, social and cultural forces have had on individuals, communities, and regions of the country.  There is also no shortage of individuals, causes and movements looking to channel that disaffection.  Populism and nationalism are catalysts that can coalesce the disaffected in this and other countries into powerful and sometimes malignant forces. It is easy to see how the real disaffection accompanying economic and social change in this country, combined with legitimate desires for national security could be stoked to the point where issues requiring thoughtful policies and actions morph into something less legitimate and more pernicious.  As my favorite self-educated, longshoreman, philosopher Eric Hoffer, wrote in “The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements”  back in 1951- “Mass movements can rise and spread without belief in a God, but never without belief in a devil.”  Today in America the devil is foreigners and  in particular – but not exclusively – foreign Muslims (along with other foreigners and immigrants the media is a distant but strong second devil), but you don’t have to look too deeply to see those sentiments extending to other faiths, races, and nationalities and others (e.g. “experts”, scientists, intellectuals, “elites”.)”  That is a big step backward for a great country (that can, in fact, be made GREATER) but one who’s greatness has not been predicated on diminishing other peoples or retreating from the rest of the world.

Years ago in this blog I wrote that NH’s most valuable import was the talented individuals that arrived here from other countries. I still believe that to be true and now seems like an appropriate time to revisit that issue with some fresh data and analysis.

Unquestionably New Hampshire and New England will be economically and demographically worse off if international migration is significantly restricted.  In fact, it is hard to see a region of the country that would be more negatively affected than New England by any large scale reduction in immigration.  International migration has provided a powerful boost to the economy of New England by adding individuals to our labor force and talent to fuel our region’s innovation-dependent economy.  Always important to the region but never more so than now,  a time when New England has been on the losing end of national demographic trends that have seen more individuals in this country moving to the south and to the west.  Looking at just the past several years we see that all of the New England states experienced more people moving out to other states than moved in.  New Hampshire is again starting to see net in-migration from other states but for more than a decade the state has experienced, on average, net international migration of about 2,000 individuals annually.

net-migration

There are about 76,000 foreign born individuals living in New Hampshire.  Immigrants comprise over 6 percent of the state’s labor force (compared to 16.5 percent in the U.S. overall) but that 6 percent has an out sized importance to the state’s labor force in a number of ways.  On balance, immigrants increase the overall level of educational attainment of New Hampshire’s adult population.   Examining data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s “American Community Survey” 5 year estimates (2011-15), the chart below shows that 40 percent of the foreign born population age 25 and above in NH has a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to 34 percent for U.S. born residents of the state.  A higher percentage of foreign born residents living in NH have not graduated from high school but overall the chart shows that  compared to the foreign born population across the U.S., immigrants in NH have significantly higher levels of educational attainment.

ed-attainment-of-immigrants

Immigrants represent a high percentage of individuals in New Hampshire with STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math) degrees.  There is no single definition of what constitutes a STEM degree but examining Census data on the first college degree (bachelor’s) received by working individuals in NH, age 25 and above, it is not difficult to reasonably classify the 172 different degrees as STEM or not.

Among NH’s foreign born adult population that holds at least a bachelor’s degree, 46 percent hold a degree in a stem field, compared to just 24 percent for native born NH residents.

immigrant-pct-with-stem-degree

Despite comprising just over 6 percent of NH’s workforce, foreign born individuals account for 16.5 percent of all working NH residents with a STEM degree, a percentage nearly equal to that of NH born residents of the state.

immigrant-pct-of-stem

Finally, examining specific occupations shows just how important immigrants are to the supply of many occupations in the state..  Foreign born residents comprise 20 percent of the computer-related occupations held by NH residents.  Fully 20 percent of physicians, surgeons, and other high-level medical occupations are held by foreign born residents of New Hampshire. Foreign born residents also hold a relatively large percentage (11.5%) of production jobs in the state.  Among lower-skill occupations foreign born residents hold 21 percent of maid and housekeeping positions and 13 percent of janitorial occupations. The figure below highlights the impact of immigrants on the supply of occupations in NH for several of the more than 400 occupations examined.  Only occupations held by 1,000 or more NH residents are included.

immigrant-share-of-occupationsSupporters of migration bans and limits say that the limits on immigration would only apply to refugees (not comforting to me for a number of non-economic reasons), undocumented immigrants, or those with a criminal past.  But with the rhetoric and actions coming from Washington it is hard to see anti-immigration policies stopping there.

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“But NH Isn’t Dead”

November 17, 2016

There is a scene from the movie “Monty Python and the Holy Grail” where a wagon stacked with bodies is being pulled through a plague infested medieval village while a crier calls out “bring out your dead.”  The comedy in that grim scene comes when a man tries to load a body slung over his shoulder onto the wagon and against the protests of the still quite alive “dead man” who says such things as “but I’m not dead,” I’m feeling better,” and “I think I will go for a walk.” I am reminded of that movie scene every time I hear proclamations about NH being the 1st or 2nd oldest state in the nation.

An excellent radio program in NH (especially  when I am guest – I wasn’t on this broadcast) recently spent an hour discussing the implications of NH being “the second oldest state in the nation.” The operational definition of “second oldest state” was never given but I assume it is based on the median age of the state’s population.  Using 5 year Census Bureau estimates (2010-14) NH has the third highest median age of any state in the nation (collective gasp here), behind only Maine and Vermont.

median-age

Before administering the sacrament of the anointing of the sick to New Hampshire, however, understand that a state’s median age says relatively little about the age distribution of a population and even less about the demographic and public policy challenges (and their severity) that a state will confront in the future.  Does NH’s high median age really mean our state is worse off demographically than 47 other states?

First, a high median age doesn’t mean NH has a disproportionate number of elderly residents.  It does mean, and has for some time, that NH has a high percentage of residents in the middle of the age distribution and fewer at early ages. As the chart below shows, on the percentage of the population age 65+, NH ranks 15th among all states and below many states with a lower median age.

age-65

Second as I argued here, if you want to understand the strains that an older demographic may place on the fiscal system of a state or a nation you need to look at the “old age dependency ratio,” or the number of older residents in relation to the number of working-age residents because that is a measure of the population that will largely be paying for or supporting the services for the older population.  There will be more elderly in NH and that will increase service needs but the fiscal pressures those needs place on the state is a function of both the number in need of services and the number of working age individuals supporting the services (that is why China’s “one-child” policy that results in  four grandparents, two parents, and one child was always a demographic ponzi scheme).   The old-age dependency ratio is rising in NH but again, on that metric, NH hardly looks  that much worse off than most states as it is firmly in the middle of all states on the ratio of residents age 65+ to working age residents.  In addition, because NH has relatively healthier and more well-off older residents compared to many states, our dependency ratio probably slightly overstates the challenge the old-age dependency ratio presents to the state. With NH’s lowest in the nation birth rates the old-age dependency ratio could rise rapidly depending on migration trends (as has been the case in recent years) and is one more reason to want to make our state broadly appealing to demographic groups.

dependency-ratio

NH does face significant demographic challenges and if overstating their magnitude is necessary for action to address them then I guess I can live with that.  But too often the discussions of the demographic challenges facing NH are laced with agenda driven diagnoses and  prescriptions that make for great headlines but ineffective policies.

Low birth rates (NH now has the lowest in the nation) resulting from high labor force participation and levels of educational attainment among women in NH (a sign of our state’s successes not our failures) along with low mortality rates among an older population that is both healthier and wealthier (on average) than in most states, is a recipe for a higher median age in a state.  That is unless median age can be made more stationary through the in-migration of younger residents, or as NH has traditionally done, in-migration of residents more in the middle of the age distribution along with their children.  That was exactly NH’s recipe for success for decades even as young people have left the state (a decades long trend in NH), at least until net state-to-state migration slowed in NH, just as it has been slowing nationally for some time.   Between 2010 and 2015, the Census Bureau estimates that about 5,500 more NH residents moved out-of-state than residents of other states moved in, with about 6,700 more moving out of Hillsborough County than moved in, while about 4,500 more residents moved into Rockingham and Strafford Counties than moved out during that time.  The graphic below disputes the notion that NH is no longer a place that people want to locate, they are just being more selective in where they choose to locate in the state.  Examining the differences in population growth and demographic changes among individual communities within these counties  further suggests some of the factors that can contribute to in-migration and inform public policies that seek to address NH’s demographic challenges.  Not all communities experienced the growth or decline in migration characteristic of their counties.  Understanding why  is important to the future of our state and its communities.  It is more than just nearby job opportunities or Hillsborough County would not have seen so much out-migration.  I have written about some of the factors in prior blog posts.

county-migration

Many communities are aging more slowly than the state as a whole and their experiences are illustrative of some of the factors and actions that can influence the age structure of a state or a community. Yet policy discussions about demographics at the state level typically overlook positive demographic trends in many communities in the state.  Below is a chart that highlights how the median age has changed over two decades in just a few NH communities.  The chart shows the median age of each community in 1990, and then incrementally adds how much the median age has changed in each of the following two decades.  There was relatively little difference in the median age of each community’s population in 1990, but especially in the 2000 to 2010 decade, the rate of change in median age varied significantly among the communities.  Communities such as Portsmouth, which had a relatively high median age until 2000, slowed its rate of “aging” dramatically in the 2000s, as did Dover and Manchester, albeit for different reasons and with different demographics.

community-median-age

The point is that if some regions and some communities in NH can rage against the dying of the light, others and maybe even the state as a whole, can as well.  So, while many want to heap NH onto a metaphorical “death wagon,” let me say “but NH is not dead, I think we should go for a walk today”.

The Demographic Trend NH Should Most Worry About

April 25, 2014

I believe that demographics explains two-thirds of everything and with more observers, analysts, and pundits also appreciating the explanatory power of demographics, the use of demography to account for economic, fiscal, and social phenomena has increased dramatically. That also means there are more inaccurate or misleading demographic analyses to sort through to find real insights.

The simple story about how NH is aging rapidly is a nice, if not completely accurate, dramatic story with intuitive appeal that makes it ideal for stimulating PowerPoint presentations as well as marketing and promoting a host of public policies and causes.  Most of the policy prescriptions justified on the basis of demographics will have no impact on the age structure of NH or any other state.   As I have noted before, aging is a permanent, irreversible consequence of low average family size and longer life expectancies in developed societies.   Unlike some states NH’s aging is more a result of its successes than of its failures.   As long as NH continues to have relatively healthier and wealthier (lowering mortality rates) older citizens who resist shedding their mortal coil in a timely manner, and as long as females in the state continue their preference for achieving relatively high levels of educational attainment and labor force participation (lowering birth rates), NH will have a relatively higher median age of its residents.   The youngest states (by median age) in the nation are those with higher birth rates i.e. Utah, California, Texas.   Adding population at age zero has the greatest impact and over the longest time on the age structure of a population.

It is possible for NH to achieve a relatively stationary median age through in-migration; even if the in-migration isn’t concentrated among the youngest age groups (this can be demonstrated mathematically but is not amenable to a blog post).   In fact, that is exactly what New Hampshire did for several decades during its boom years – it added a lot of individuals and families in the middle of the age distribution (30-44), typically two wage earner married couple families (probably both college educated) with children.

I think it is great, although somewhat unrealistic, to  think NH can retain all of its young people in an effort to address the “aging” issue (young people from smaller states and non-metro areas seem to have an understandable preference for locating in areas teeming with a similar demographic).   Even if NH keeps all of its young people in-state after completing their education I don’t think there is anything we can do to keep them from growing older, so as long fertility rates continue to decline the state will only be keeping a somewhat larger percentage of a declining demographic.   But that is not to say that efforts to make the state more attractive to young people aren’t valuable, whether or not they are directed at individuals born in New Hampshire.   In fact, NH should be more concerned with making the state attractive to the skilled individuals with higher levels of educational attainment, of all ages.

Our state’s ability to attract ‘talent” from other states has largely been responsible for NH’s increasing prosperity over the past several decades and that gets to the demographic trend NH should be very concerned with – the continuing decline in our nation’s mobility or rate of inter-state migration.   The recent decline has been attributed to economic conditions but there is a longer-term trend decline in inter-state migration that has been widespread across demographic and socioeconomic groups, as well as for moves of all distances.
National interstate migration rates

Researchers have noted that homeownership and the age distribution of the population (older households move less) can account for some, but not much of the decline, and some have hypothesized that changes in the labor market (reduced job changing and switching of employers) may be playing a significant role.   The chart above shows that both inter-state migration and individual rates of changing employers have been declining. While not indicative of causation, there is a strong correlation between the two variables over time.

NH has seen a larger drop in its annual inter-state migration rate between the decade of the 1980s and the decade of the 2000s than almost all other states. Of course some of that is attributable to the fact that we began with much higher rates (see the drop in other states with high rates of inter-state migration) but it is still an important trend to examine.

State interstate migration change

Examining the relationship between inter-state migration and switching employers with cross-sectional (state level) rather than as a time series, shows a similarly strong relationship, suggesting to me that a more dynamic labor market where individuals are less concerned about moving between employers will maximize NH’s opportunity to increase the net in-migration.   Still, developing a simple predictive model that includes rates of switching employers to explain inter-state migration rates suggests that NH should have seen a much smaller decline in net-migration than actually occurred.   The chart below shows the model’s residuals, or errors in predicting the change in inter-state migration for each state, it shows that NH’s decline in average annual inter-state-migration between the 1980s and 2000s was actually greater than predicted by the model.   At the other end of the spectrum, Massachusetts, while having a declining inter-state migration rate, experienced a much smaller decline than predicted.   A lot of self-serving hypothesis for the above expected decline in NH’s inter-state migration rate will be offered but understanding the real causes are critical for the state’s future.

Residuals of interstate migration
New Hampshire needs to concerned with demographic trends but it also needs to be concerned with the right ones and the ones that it has some ability to influence.   I don’t think the state can or perhaps even should do much about its lower birth and certainly not the lower mortality rates that are key drivers of population aging.   But I do think that achieving a relatively stationary (it will increase it is just a matter of how rapidly) median age is possible. But this will require policies that are concerned with making NH attractive to individuals as well as businesses.   At the local level this is working as evidenced by the differences in growth rates among NH regions, but as the data in this blog suggest, in doing so the state will be pushing against larger national economic and demographic trends.

 

There’s No Place Like Home (Your Home State)

April 29, 2013

I was surprised by data on the enrollment migration of high school graduates who enter  four-year colleges immediately or shortly after graduation from high school.   As the chart below shows, in most states, a very high percentage of students enrolling in four-year colleges enroll in a school in their home state.

Student Migration

This would not be  unexpected if it were data from 1920 but a lot has changed in the world that should exert a fairly strong influence on the enrollment decisions of high school graduates.  First, anything that reduces the time, cost, or difficulty in travel should contribute to an increase in the willingness of students to travel further to attend college.  The real cost of travel (measured as dollar per airline mile) has fallen dramatically over the past several decades.  In addition, the increased ability to communicate over longer distances and at ever lower prices should also reduce disincentives to enrollment over distances.  Perhaps even more importantly, the information available to students and their parents about schools (including video tours, rankings, and all types of detailed data), should also reduce the barrier of distance from home  to enrollment in a college.   In addition, colleges have more information about students and an increasing ability to target potential students irrespective of their distance from campus.  States with a low percentage of students enrolling in a college in their homes state (NH, VT, CT, MD, DE) all have many college choices in nearby states so many of the barriers that might influence enrollment distance don’t really apply.

We in NH fret a lot about the percentage of students who choose to enroll in an out-of-state college, but almost 90 percent of NH grads enrolling in a four-year institution enroll in a college in New England and on balance we are a slight “net-importer” of college enrollees.   There are tremendous economic and public policy implications related to the supply of young college graduates but we need to be careful that in analyzing the issues we use appropriate metrics.  I am not convinced that in NH’s case, the percentage of students enrolling in-state is a good one.

I need to look at a time series of this data to get a better handle on some of the contributing factors to these data.  For now the only conclusion I can draw is that college-age children simply care too much about their families to want to venture far from home – at least that is want I have wanted to believe for the past several years.

NH’s Most Valuable Import?

December 11, 2012

I write a lot about the importance of skilled individuals with higher levels of educational attainment to the prospects for our nation’s and NH’s economic growth and prosperity.  I’ve also written about how important the in-migration of skilled individuals with higher levels of educational attainment from other states to NH has been to NH’s economic success.

I know  foreign immigration to the U.S. is a hot-button issue in this country and an increasingly high-profile one in cities like Manchester in NH.  Whether because of economics, legitimate  fiscal concerns, or simple xenophobia,  for many, foreign immigration is viewed with concern, skepticism, and sometimes hostility.  While some cities and school districts are more challenged by differing characteristics of immigrant populations in NH, on balance, foreign born individuals add significantly to the overall level of skill and educational attainment of the workforce in NH.  The chart below shows how much higher is the educational attainment of the foreign-born workforce in NH than it is in the U.S. as whole.

Ed Attainment by Place of Birth US and NH

Comparing foreign born workers in NH to U.S. born workers in NH shows that foreign born workers are much more likely to have a graduate or professional degree than are U.S. born workers age 25-34.  Foreign born workers comprise a disproportionately large percentage of NH residents with graduate and professional degrees and that is reflected in many of the highest skill occupations in the state.  Which, of course, will be the subject of a future post.

Ed attainment by birth ages 25 to 34

Keeping an Eye On Which Prize?

October 26, 2012

Every state is obsessed with maintaining or creating a “good business climate.”  I think NH has traditionally had a good business climate, with both the public and policymakers demonstrating a high regard for businesses,  and with a climate of mutual respect between the business community  and state policymakers.  At times they have differed in their views, and the balance of interests could change marginally from time to time, but over the years there was a nice balance where each was able to ultimately rely on one another to increase opportunities and prosperity in the state.  There is a lot of fretting over the business climate in the state and what it means for our ability to “attract” businesses. That is always a good thing to monitor, but I am concerned that we (business people, policy makers, citizens) may be spending too little time concerned with creating a climate that is attractive to individuals.  More specifically, skilled individuals with higher levels of educational attainment that increasingly are the source of competitive economic advantage in states and regions.  The in-migration of individuals with higher levels of educational attainment fueled NH’s economy and increased the concentration of technology and higher-skill industries and occupations during much of the past few decades, just as it has in other states that have been able to successfully attract skilled, well-educated individuals.   The chart below shows how the educational attainment of NH residents differs between  those who were born and continue to live in NH, and those who live in NH but where born in another state (in a future post I will discuss international migrants).

The chart shows that residents who have moved to NH from another state are much more likely to have a bachelor’s or higher educational degree.  NH regularly loses its natives with higher-levels of educational attainment to others states, just as other states lose those individuals.  Individuals with higher-levels of educational attainment are the most mobile in society.  They have the most opportunities and generally resources that afford them more choices on where to locate.  That means that the native population will often show overall levels of educational attainment lower than in-migrants from other states.  In-migrants to MA also have much higher overall levels of educational attainment than natives who live in the state,  but the native population that was born and lives in MA has higher levels of educational attainment than the native population in NH.  In fact, educational attainment among those who where born and live in MA looks a lot like the in-migrant population of NH, not surprising since about 300,000 individuals born in MA now reside in NH.

In-migration to NH has been slowing and recently stopped, with tremendous implications for our economy’s ability to grow, innovate, and remain dynamic.  Lets keep our eye on maintaining a good business climate (we can start by reinforcing our tradition of mutual respect between business and government), but I think we need to quickly  begin asking ourselves if a singular concern about business climate is sufficient to assure growth in our economy  if NH is losing its attractiveness to the individuals who are increasingly the source of its economic strength.


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