Archive for March 2019

Not So Fast on NH’s Job Growth

March 14, 2019

The monthly payroll employment report gets a lot of attention. The monthly estimates are based on a survey sample of employers (differing from the monthly survey of households that is the source of unemployment and labor force estimates). Prior year monthly payroll estimates are revised early each year as more complete data (than the sample survey) are analyzed.  For a number of reasons (including the fact that newer firms are slow to get included in the survey) NH’s employment estimates more often than not have shown stronger (than first reported) job growth rates. Not this year. The new benchmark numbers have cut the state’s annualized job growth by more than half (to below 1%). The chart below shows the year-over-year growth rate in private sector employment in NH is about 1% (including government employment shows a slightly slower rate of job growth 0.8%).

Benchmark revisions

Early in 2018 I forecast NH’s job growth for 2018 would be about 0.6% (based on labor force constraints – not a weaker economy) and for several months I have been issuing a mea culpa for what looked like a significantly inaccurate employment growth forecast. While my sagacity is less challenged than I originally thought, I was more comfortable with NH’s employment trends when it was.

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