Posted tagged ‘fiscal cliff’

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If We Can Beat the Mayan Apocalypse Why Not the Fiscal Cliff?

December 21, 2012

If the Mayan apocalypse can be postponed (I am not sure exactly at which time it is supposed to occur so I may be speaking too soon here) then surely the U.S. Congress can agree to actions to avoid the fiscal cliff.  Lawmakers are poised to give us over $500 billion in tax increases and over $100 billion in spending cuts to begin the new year.  The fiscal cliff is a  pretty big lump of coal as a gift to begin 2013.

What is extraordinary about the cliff’s self-inflicted harm is that it appears  almost all sentient beings realize what needs to happen. More importantly, there also appears to be substantial agreement on most of the actions necessary to avoid the economic harm resulting from the fiscal cliff.   Spending clearly has to be cut  just as surely as revenues have to be raised.

deficit trends

With so much apparent agreement on actions needed to avoid the damage, it is hard to understand the calculus of lawmakers as the lack of an agreement begins to  demonstrably affect business and consumer confidence as well as financial  markets.  Congress always comes up with a temporary fix for the alternative minimum tax and can easily do so again.  Almost everyone wants the payroll tax cut to expire (for different reasons – Republicans because they don’t like the temporary nature and believe it has no incentive for work and saving and Democrats because of its impact on the Social Security trust fund).  There is little support for extending unemployment benefits.  It seems like neither party really wants the spending cuts (Republicans opposed to defense cuts and Democrats to non-defense cuts).   There is disagreement over the tax increase for high income individuals included in the Affordable Care Act and Medicare reimbursements for doctors but those are a miniscule portion of the cliff’s effects.   Beyond all the posturing,  the fight in congress is really  about whether to extend tax cut provisions to 98% or 100% of U.S. households.

cliff effects on growth

I know I am simplifying here.  Even with many agreed upon temporary  fixes,  longer-term solutions must be found.  But lawmakers could still salvage strong economic benefits by avoiding the worst of the cliff’s impacts in the short-term while resolving longer-term issues in the first-half of 2013.  Such a “grand bargain”  would both increase business and consumer confidence and set the nation on a more sustainable budgetary and debt path that would quickly overcome any of the short-term negative impacts  resulting from necessary spending cuts and revenue increases.

Categories: Fiscal Cliff, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Spending, Tax Revenue, U,S, Economy
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Comments: 1 Comment

The Fiscal “Cliff” is No “Bluff”

November 27, 2012

Linguists will take exception to that and note that a cliff is, in fact, a bluff.    The consensus among economists, however,  is that the fiscal cliff is indeed no bluff.    A number of commentators have noted that the fiscal cliff is more like a slope and will not  cause immediate economic calamity.  I was one of those as a guest on NHPR’s “The Exchange“.   But just as there was once too much hyperbole surrounding the fiscal cliff issue, now, as we get closer to the deadlines when the combination of tax hikes  and spending cuts that define the fiscal cliff take effect, there seems to be more of an effort to minimize the likely impacts that will occur if no resolution is found.  That would be a mistake because whether the spending cuts take effect immediately or over the course of a year or more, and whether the tax hikes immediately effect spending and investment decisions is not the issue.  The issue is that the U.S. economy is simply not growing fast enough to withstand the impacts of the full implementation of the provisions of the fiscal cliff.  Skeptics fire away, but below is a succinct chart that shows how the effects of the fiscal cliff relate to real growth in our nation’s economy, assuming the effects of the cliff occur in 2014.  To lump all effects in one year isn’t accurate, but the point is to place the magnitude of the cliff’s impacts into context.  I believe the context in the chart below highlights the importance of a reasonable resolution to the potential problems the cliff could cause.

Categories: Fiscal Cliff, Fiscal Policy, Politics
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What Will the “Fiscal Cliff” Mean for NH?

October 30, 2012

For an economy struggling to gain altitude it is hard to see how the impending spending cuts and tax increases associated with the “fiscal cliff” will do anything in the short-term but bring the economy to stall speed or push it back into recession.  At a time when compromise is seen as weakness and ideological impurity, an agreement must be reached in order to avoid the negative effects of the the fiscal cliff.  Depending on what is included, the ‘fiscal cliff includes anywhere from $500 to $700 billion in combined spending cuts and tax increases (many via the expiration of temporary cuts).

All states will feel the effects of the elimination of the temporary cut in the payroll tax but states with a higher percentage of high-income taxpayers will likely be affected more by the expiration of Bush era tax cuts.  Despite often being characterized as a “tax haven” for the rich, NH is much more a “haven for the middle class” as it has a somewhat higher percentage of high-income households than the U.S. (but much lower than MA) and a relatively smaller percentage of lower- income individuals.   The percentage of high-wealth individuals in NH is above the U.S. average, but the percentage of income taxes paid by those making $200,000 or more in NH is lower than 24 other states.

States where higher-wealth individuals pay a larger portion of the  state’s tax burden are likely to be relatively more affected by the tax cut expiration provisions of the fiscal cliff.   But NH will still see an estimated increase in payroll taxes of about $650 million, a significant drop in disposable income in the state.  In addition, a study by George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis estimates that the defense department and non-defense department budget cuts that will  result from  the fiscal cliff will cost NH about 6,300 jobs and $325 million in labor income.  NH no doubt will take some solace from the fact that Massachusetts is likely to see nearly 10 times the job losses from  budget cuts to defense and other purposes (especially medical) and as a result of  their high percentage of high-wealth households.

I want to think a reasonable resolution will be found that avoids the worst of the potential problems from the fiscal cliff.  Fiscal tightening is clearly warranted,  and it appears almost certain that at a minimum the payroll tax holiday will be allowed to expire  as well as the Bush era tax cuts for upper income households.  It is also almost certain that long term unemployment insurance benefits will be allowed to run out.  After that, it all depends on one four-letter word – compromise.

Categories: Fiscal Cliff, Fiscal Policy, job growth, NH Economy, Politics
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